Patriots playoff odds: What computers, bookies think about New England playoff possibilities


After Sunday’s win over the Chargers took the Patriots to 4-4, fans across the region began to allow themselves previously absent optimism. Could this team make the playoffs?

Seven teams from each conference are on the field, four division winners and three wild cards. In the AFC right now, the Patriots are currently tied for eighth, but no team in the conference has less than two losses, so there are plenty of positions to play and plenty of football to play.

What are the Patriots’ chances of doing well enough in their last nine games to get in? How hopeful should New England fans be? Three national sites – FiveThirtyEight.com, The New York Times, and ESPN – all have data-driven simulation programs that analyze each team’s chances of making the playoffs and advancing. All three have the Patriots right on the border. BetMGM.com bettors don’t have a playoff futures bet available on their site, but the Patriots’ position in their estimate is pretty clear from the bets they have.

FiveThirtyEight.com

The political and sports analysis site updates the playoff odds for each team after the end of each match. Thanks to eight weeks of action, he gives the Patriots a:

  • 46% chance of making playoffs – (eighth best among AFC teams)
  • 9% chance of winning AFC East
  • 2% chance of winning the first round bye
  • 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl

The New York Times

The NYT model likes the Patriots a bit more than Five-Thirty Eight. He has New England with a:

  • 50% chance of making the playoffs – (seventh in the AFC)
  • 16% to win the AFC East
  • 3% to win the first round bye
  • 2% to win the Super Bowl

ESPN

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the highest percentages of any site. He has the Patriots with a:

  • 52.4% chance of making the playoffs (eighth)
  • 5.0% to win the AFC East
  • 22.7% to go around the division
  • 8.5% to reach conference finals
  • 3.3% to make the Super Bowl
  • 1.1% to win the Super Bowl

Las Vegas bookies are less optimistic about New England’s odds. Of course, they don’t try to guess with precision in terms of possible outcomes, but they do try to spread the bets over the greatest number of teams, allowing them to win the most money.

BetMGM, the casino’s online sports bet, offers Patriots bets which are:

  • +8000 to win the Super Bowl.
  • + 3500 to win the AFC championship (it’s 11th among AFC teams)
  • +850 to win AFC East
  • Mac Jones, at +350, has the second shortest odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year behind Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
  • Bill Belichick is +2000 to be named Coach of the Year, who is eighth among coaches.


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